Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
